Possible scenario
ECB Turns Cautious
20% Chance
The ECB leans against market hopes for quick cuts, arguing that energy shocks can become embedded in wages and services prices. The policy message, rather than the French data alone, becomes the key market driver.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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