Possible scenario
Interest-Only Expansion
22% Chance
The G7 avoids using the immobilized principal and instead expands the 2024 model that monetizes earnings generated by Russian reserves. This is legally safer but may not fully close the $54 billion gap without additional IMF or bilateral money.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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