Possible scenario
EU Asset Loan Deal
38% Chance
The European Commission, Belgium, and the G7 converge on a legal structure that uses immobilized Russian central bank cash flows or cash balances as security for a Ukraine loan. This is the most likely path because it avoids formal confiscation while answering Kyiv’s near-term funding gap.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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