Possible scenario
Asset Plan Stalls
27% Chance
Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia, or legally cautious member states block rapid use of Russian sovereign assets. The EU remains willing to fund Ukraine but must rely on less controversial borrowing or national contributions, slowing disbursement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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