Possible scenario
Severe Mortality Wave
38% Chance
The Climate Impact Lab projection proves directionally accurate as extreme heat episodes intensify across densely populated, low-income regions. Health systems in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southeast Asia face sustained emergency loads, while governments expand cooling centers and water distribution.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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