Possible scenario
Food Security Shock
27% Chance
The Super El Niño transmits most visibly through agriculture, water stress and transport disruption. Food-price sensitivity rises as rice, sugar, coffee, cocoa and palm-oil producers face uneven drought and flood damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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