Possible scenario
Frozen Negotiating Stalemate
30% Chance
The most durable obstacle is disagreement over southern Syria's military status and Israel's buffer-zone presence. Both sides find it politically safer to blame the other for the failed near-deal while avoiding a major military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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