Damage Remains Contained

The most likely outcome is that the intelligence warning remains a political and reputational issue rather than a binding policy reversal. Trump keeps Jensen Huang at arm’s length publicly while avoiding a disruptive break with Nvidia because AI-chip revenue, U.S. technology leadership, and the prior H200 China-sales framework remain important.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.