Possible scenario
Tit For Tat Escalation
28% Chance
The TTP answers the airstrikes with attacks on Pakistani police, army, or intelligence sites, prompting Islamabad to widen cross-border operations. The Taliban faces domestic pressure to respond, raising the risk of another breakdown like the February-March 2026 confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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