Contained Border Retaliation

Pakistan treats the strikes as a calibrated response to the police headquarters attack, while the Taliban government condemns them but avoids direct military retaliation. Back-channel contacts through China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and tribal intermediaries keep the border from sliding back into the open-war phase seen earlier in 2026.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.