Possible scenario
Brokered Security Reset
20% Chance
China, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar use their existing channels with Islamabad and Kabul to prevent a return to open conflict. Pakistan agrees to pause airstrikes if the Taliban restricts TTP commanders, relocates some fighters away from the border, or permits monitoring through a joint mechanism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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