Possible scenario
Diplomatic Security Strain
15% Chance
The incident becomes a point of friction between Israel and the UAE, with each side pressing the other over passenger screening and onboard security responsibility. The Abraham Accords framework remains intact, but aviation and tourism ties face a visible setback.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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