Possible scenario
Razor-Thin Control
12% Chance
A narrower outcome remains possible if Republican incumbents outperform district-level polling or Democrats waste votes in already-blue seats. Control of the House could then depend on late ballots, recounts, and litigation in a small number of competitive districts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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