Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
18% Chance
A larger Democratic wave becomes plausible if Trump’s approval remains near the low 30s and Republican candidates cannot detach from the economy. In this scenario, the House result becomes part of a broader rebuke of the administration rather than a narrow midterm correction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.6%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.