Clear Democratic Flip

The most likely outcome is that Democrats take the House with a workable but not sweeping majority, consistent with Cook Political Report and DDHQ moving the race sharply toward a flip. Trump’s 32% approval rating and voter blame for the economy create a durable anti-incumbent environment in suburban and Biden-won districts currently held by Republicans.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.