Possible scenario
US Posture Strains
18% Chance
The blockade continues, but the reported depletion of U.S. military assets becomes the dominant story. Washington reallocates munitions, surveillance aircraft, and maintenance capacity, raising questions about readiness in the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
- Energy -0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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