Possible scenario
Blockade Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that U.S. Central Command maintains the maritime blockade and air surveillance tempo while avoiding direct strikes on Iranian territory. Iran's crude exports remain near zero, but both Washington and Tehran keep actions below the threshold of declared war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.