Possible scenario
Sanctions and Cyber Retaliation
25% Chance
The US and UK decide that a visible response is needed but stop short of overt military action. Measures focus on IRGC intelligence networks, Iranian-linked financial channels, diplomatic expulsions, and cyber operations against overseas recruitment infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.