Possible scenario
Military Posture Escalates
20% Chance
The plot is treated as part of a broader Iranian campaign against US and UK military assets. Washington reinforces bomber, naval, and air-defense deployments, increasing the risk premium around the Gulf without necessarily crossing into direct conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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