Possible scenario
Iran Escalation Disrupts Plans
20% Chance
Tehran or aligned groups decide that bypass infrastructure is a strategic threat and target terminals, pipeline nodes, or construction sites. This keeps Hormuz relevant by making alternatives themselves part of the conflict geography.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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