Possible scenario
Armed Border Standoff
30% Chance
Eritrea refuses a full withdrawal and Ethiopia moves additional units north without launching a large offensive. The front hardens into artillery exchanges, drone surveillance, road closures, and competing claims around Afar and northern Tigray.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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