Possible scenario
Demand Downgrade Sticks
45% Chance
Markets treat the OPEC revision as a credible acknowledgement that China’s slowdown, EV adoption and efficiency gains have permanently lowered near-term oil demand growth. The immediate effect is a repricing of crude and upstream energy equities rather than a broad financial shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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