Possible scenario
US Brokers Restraint
25% Chance
Washington moves quickly to prevent the strike from collapsing the diesel supply arrangement. Ukraine accepts some limits on attacks against export infrastructure in exchange for continued US military and intelligence support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.