Possible scenario
Strikes Continue
40% Chance
Ukraine continues targeting Russian fuel export and refining infrastructure despite Trump’s reported diesel arrangement with Putin. Kyiv calculates that degrading Russian logistics has higher military value than preserving a politically fragile supply deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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