Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates
20% Chance
Russia responds militarily and politically, arguing that Ukraine sabotaged a supply arrangement negotiated with Trump. Retaliation is most likely to focus on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and intensified missile strikes rather than direct escalation with NATO.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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