Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence Cycle
50% Chance
North Korea's launches are treated as a calibrated force display rather than a prelude to immediate conflict. The United States, South Korea and Japan answer with missile-defense exercises, intelligence sharing and public deterrence messaging while avoiding direct military contact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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