Possible scenario
Follow-On Missile Test
15% Chance
Pyongyang follows the three-missile salvo with another weapons demonstration to reinforce deterrence and protest US-Japan-South Korea military coordination. This would deepen regional unease, especially if the trajectory approaches Japan or the Northern Limit Line.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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