Possible scenario
Allied Military Escalation
25% Chance
The allies respond with a more visible show of force, including strategic bomber flights, live-fire exercises or additional missile deployments in Japan and South Korea. The risk of miscalculation rises, but the response remains below the threshold of armed conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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