Possible scenario
Negotiated Permit Compromise
42% Chance
OpenAI, SoftBank, and the five-union coalition win a partial rollback of blanket data-center bans by offering project labor agreements, grid-upgrade funding, and demand-response commitments. State leaders accept a framework that lets high-priority AI projects proceed while localities retain some zoning authority.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.6%
- Utilities +1.0%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Tickers
- ORCL+1.6%
- VST+0.9%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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