Possible scenario
Security First Reset
18% Chance
The reset is anchored in security cooperation rather than trade liberalization, building on the 2025 trade-security agreement. This route is politically easier because it avoids the most sensitive Brexit issues while responding to shared concerns over Russia, cyber threats and defence-industrial capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.