Possible scenario
Incremental Trade Reset
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a pragmatic reset that improves implementation of existing post-Brexit arrangements without reopening the core single-market settlement. London and Brussels agree targeted steps on customs, food checks, professional services dialogue and Northern Ireland trade stability, leaving harder questions for 2027.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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