Possible scenario
Ambitious Mobility Deal
25% Chance
A more ambitious reset includes youth mobility, student exchange, mutual recognition discussions and deeper regulatory cooperation. This would be politically harder for the UK government but economically meaningful for travel, universities, services exporters and cross-border employers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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