Possible scenario
U.S.-Iran Direct Clash
20% Chance
A lethal or highly visible shipping attack triggers direct U.S. military action against IRGC launch sites, radars, boats or mine infrastructure. The conflict remains most likely to be limited, but the risk of retaliation against Gulf bases and energy facilities rises materially.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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