Possible scenario
Tanker Damage Escalation
30% Chance
Iran or IRGC-linked units carry out more consequential attacks against commercial shipping, potentially using mines, drones or anti-ship missiles. This scenario fits the recent pattern of tanker strikes and new mine-laying, but Tehran may still try to calibrate attacks below the threshold of full war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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