Possible scenario
Fed Reassurance Helps
20% Chance
Federal Reserve communication or incoming inflation data reassures investors that the rise in long yields does not necessarily imply another policy tightening cycle. Markets price a lower probability of a renewed inflation scare, helping both stocks and bonds stabilize.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Fed policy rate Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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