Possible scenario
Equities Keep Climbing
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that investors continue to treat higher Treasury yields as a warning rather than an immediate obstacle. AI-linked earnings momentum, buybacks, and passive inflows keep the S&P 500 supported despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting above 5%.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.2%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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