Possible scenario
Military Escalation
30% Chance
The blockade environment creates a high risk of miscalculation, especially as U.S. forces redirect a large number of commercial vessels. A missile, drone, mine, or patrol-boat incident could trigger U.S. strikes on IRGC assets and a sharp but still localized market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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