Possible scenario
Diplomatic Partial Deescalation
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries have strong incentives to prevent a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, Qatar, the UN, and major Asian energy buyers could push both sides toward a narrow maritime arrangement that lowers immediate conflict risk without resolving the underlying U.S.-Iran confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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