Possible scenario
Backlash Forces Revision
27% Chance
Congressional Republicans, Democrats, and European officials use Zelenskyy's comments to pressure the White House into modifying the deal. The likely compromise is a delay, tighter reporting, or a narrower license rather than a complete reversal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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