Diesel Relief Holds

The most likely path is that the sanctions waiver and Russia's eased export curbs quickly add marginal diesel supply to the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Peace talks remain stalled, but both Washington and Moscow keep the diesel channel open because it lowers U.S. pump and freight costs while providing Russia hard-currency revenue.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.