Possible scenario
Talks Remain Stalled
27% Chance
The U.S. refuses to end the blockade before receiving stronger verification guarantees, while Iran declines to reopen Hormuz unconditionally. Both sides keep talking at the UN and through Oman, but the immediate breakthrough implied by the proposal does not materialize.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.