Possible scenario
Pilot Reopening Accepted
38% Chance
Washington treats the Iranian proposal as a testable de-escalation step and agrees to limited blockade relief while UN and Omani monitors verify ship movements. This is the most likely path because both sides have already moved from threats toward conditional bargaining, and a short trial lowers political risk for Trump and Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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