Possible scenario
Risk-On Extends
40% Chance
Momentum from cooling inflation, stronger 2026 growth expectations and the AI-led earnings cycle carries into the next few sessions. Investors treat the record weekly closes as confirmation that liquidity and profit trends still support higher equity multiples.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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