Possible scenario
Healthy Consolidation
30% Chance
After the historic weekly closes, short-term traders take profits without changing the underlying constructive macro view. The pullback is limited because earnings expectations and Fed easing hopes remain intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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