Possible scenario
Phased Diplomatic Reopening
25% Chance
Iran accepts a face-saving partial deal after pressure from China, India, Oman, Qatar, and Gulf exporters. Washington avoids formal sanctions relief but permits escrowed oil revenues, humanitarian carveouts, or a pause in further strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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