Possible scenario
Managed Prolonged Standoff
40% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait closed while Washington refuses sanctions relief or guarantees against further strikes. The most likely near-term path is a tense standoff with naval escorts, back-channel talks through Oman and Qatar, and only limited leakage of Gulf exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.