Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
22% Chance
The U.S., possibly with Israeli intelligence and Gulf basing support, concludes Iran will not reopen Hormuz voluntarily. Strikes target IRGC coastal missile batteries, drone launch sites, mines, radar, and naval assets, with outcomes depending on Iran's retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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