Possible scenario
NATO Border Risk
15% Chance
Repeated long-range strikes near western Ukraine increase the chance of debris, drones or missiles crossing into NATO-adjacent territory. This remains a tail-risk scenario, but even a limited border incident could produce a sharper short-term risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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