Possible scenario
State Department Contains
25% Chance
The State Department's internal process becomes the main venue, limiting Congress to oversight letters and staff briefings. This outcome is plausible if investigators find poor judgment and documentation failures but not clear evidence of bribery or quid pro quo conduct.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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