Possible scenario
Guilfoyle Leaves Post
20% Chance
Guilfoyle resigns or is recalled before the investigations fully mature. This would reduce political exposure for the administration and allow the State Department to stabilize embassy operations while the ethics review continues.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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